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The first quarter started well, and future growth is expected

The first quarter

2024 is a crucial year for achieving the goals and tasks of the 14th Five-Year Plan.

The latest report on the first quarter of China’s economy shows that in the first quarter, the economic operation continued to pick up and improve, the growth rate of major economic indicators rose steadily, and the adjustment of the economic structure made steady progress, but at the same time, there are still some problems and challenges.

On 25 July, the Xinhua News Agency launched a new issue of the “China Economic Roundtable” large-scale all-media talk program, inviting Li Hui, deputy director of the National Economic Comprehensive Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, Wang Guanhua, deputy director and spokesman of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, and You Hongtao, chairman of the board of directors of Chongqing Huasen Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., to discuss China’s economic trend.

 Steady start The economy got off to a good start in the first quarter

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter of this year, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) was 296299 billion yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year at constant prices and 1.6% quarter-on-quarter over the fourth quarter of last year.

“The economic growth rate in the first quarter was stable and rising, both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, which was higher than the previous quarter. Li Hui said that from a macro point of view, the entire economic operation continued to pick up and improve.

The average surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas was 5.2 percent, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, the national consumer price index (CPI) was unchanged from the same period last year, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose by 0.7 percent year-on-year, and the investment in fixed assets increased by 4.5 percent year-on-year, an increase of 1.5 percentage points over the previous year…… A series of data confirm the current economic stability and positive momentum.

“China’s economy got off to a good start in the first quarter of this year, which is not only reflected in the stability of macroeconomic fundamentals, but also in the fact that China’s economy has strengthened its muscles and strengthened its physique through transformation and upgrading. Analyzing the current economic situation, Wang Guanhua commented.

In Zhang Yansheng’s view, the growth rate of 5% of the import and export of goods in the first quarter hit a new high in six quarters, and the total amount exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time in the same period in history, and showed a change in structural optimization, demonstrating the resilience of China’s economy.

In the first quarter, the added value of the high-tech manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 7.5 percent year-on-year, 2.6 percentage points faster than that of the fourth quarter of last year; the added value of the service industry increased by 5 percent, accounting for 59 percent of GDP; the contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth reached 85.5 percent; the energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased by 0.1 percent year-on-year; the per capita disposable income of residents increased by 6.2 percent year-on-year, and the per capita consumption expenditure on services increased by 12.7 percent……

“In the first quarter, the economic operation showed a development trend of rapid growth, better structure, and better quality and efficiency. Li Hui said that the economic scale in the first quarter accounted for about 22% of the total economic output of the year. A good start is of great significance to the completion of the annual economic and social development goals and tasks.

With the enhancement of the stability and coordination of economic operation, the confidence of business entities has continued to rise. You Hongtao introduced that in the first quarter, the company’s performance increased by more than 25% over the same period last year. From the perspective of future development, the domestic health demand is still growing, and we are very confident in the future market.

Looking at the world, world economic growth is still facing great pressure. The World Bank expects the global economy to grow by 2.4 percent this year, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently raised its global growth forecast of 3.2 percent.

 Facing the challenges head-on, the foundation for the recovery still needs to be consolidated

The good start has boosted development confidence and laid a good foundation for achieving the goals and tasks of the year. However, it should also be noted that the current problems such as insufficient effective demand and weak social expectations still exist, and the foundation for sustained recovery needs to be further consolidated.

Consumption is the main engine of economic growth. In the first quarter, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.7%, slowing down from 5.5% in the first two months and 7.2% in the whole of last year. At the same time, price growth has eased, with CPI rising 0.1% year-on-year in March, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that consumer confidence needs to be further strengthened.

Wang Guanhua suggested that to promote consumption from post-epidemic recovery to continuous expansion, we should focus on three aspects: continue to expand employment, promote residents’ income, and enhance residents’ spending capacity, innovate consumption scenarios, increase the supply of high-quality goods and services, and enhance residents’ willingness to consume, and improve the commercial and trade circulation system to create a good consumption environment, so that residents can consume with peace of mind, peace of mind, and comfort.

Difficult and expensive financing is a problem that many private enterprises have faced for a long time. He said that for the pharmaceutical industry, research and development requires a lot of capital investment, and financing difficulties and other problems bring challenges to the development of enterprises.

“To solve the problem of difficult and expensive financing, we need the cooperation of various policies. Li Hui said that in terms of promoting scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation process, in addition to the implementation of tax reduction policies, the People’s Bank of China recently set up a policy tool for re-lending, which reflects the combined effect of fiscal and monetary policies.

At present, China is still in a critical stage of economic transformation and upgrading. “The transformation and upgrading of enterprises is bound to bear some pains. You Hongtao said that Huasen Pharmaceutical has always been firm in its confidence in innovation, continuously increased R&D investment, and strived to open up new tracks in the big health industry such as formula food for special medical purposes, and cultivated new advantages for development.

At present, the issue of how to effectively implement policies has also attracted much attention.

Activate the potential for long-term improvement, support and confidence

In 2024, China has set an expected target of economic growth of around 5% for the whole year.

Looking forward to the future development of China’s economy, Zhang Yansheng believes that in the short term, it is necessary to solve the problem of insufficient demand, in the medium term, it is necessary to accelerate the structural adjustment of the economy, do a good job in risk prevention and resolution and stabilize the development of the housing industry, and in the long term, it is necessary to accelerate the development of new quality productive forces to promote high-quality economic development.

To expand domestic demand, a series of measures are being taken to expand domestic demand. Since the beginning of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission has accelerated the issuance of investment plans in the central budget, and has so far issued more than 200 billion yuan, accounting for more than 30% of the year, and has completed the preliminary screening of local government special bond projects.

Following the issuance of the “Action Plan for Promoting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-in”, the “Action Plan for Promoting the Trade-in of Consumer Goods” issued by 14 departments including the Ministry of Commerce was released recently, proposing 22 measures such as increasing fiscal and financial policy support, which is expected to leverage the market space of one trillion yuan.

“We are building a better working mechanism to strengthen departmental linkage and interaction between the central and local governments. Li Hui said that at the same time, strive to include equipment renewal and some recycling projects into the scope of various government financial support such as investment in the central budget, and optimize the implementation of preferential tax policies to promote the upgrading of equipment and consumer goods.

In the first quarter of this year, consumption is still the ballast stone for the stable operation of the economy, from the holiday economy to the spring economy, various scenario-based consumption continues to innovate.

Wang Guanhua believes that there are many new economic growth points in this, and it also brings a lot of space for expanding consumption potential. “The market is the most scarce resource, China has a super-large domestic demand market of more than 1.4 billion people, with large consumption potential and strong resilience, which is our advantage, but also where our confidence and confidence lie. ”

“If an enterprise wants long-term development, it must insist on innovation. The country’s cultivation of new quality productivity has brought many new opportunities for the development of our enterprises. You Hongtao said that for enterprises, the confidence in the future development lies in the future of China’s vigorous economic development and China’s huge market potential.

Talking about the future economic trend, Li Hui said that we have the opportunity to develop new quality productivity to bring about industrial upgrading, have a more solid foundation for high-quality development, have the driving force and vitality to further deepen reform and opening up, and have policies and work preparations to deal with domestic and foreign risks and challenges.

China’s economy has always grown and strengthened in the midst of ups and downs. “To observe the operation of the economy, we still need to look at the general trend, look at the trend, and recognize the mainstream. Wang Guanhua said that there are pressures and challenges in economic operation, but there are also support and confidence, and the basic trend of economic recovery and long-term improvement has not changed.

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